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Title: The Night Sky Podcast Episode 26: Why Meteor Shower Predictions Fail | Why Location Matters for Stargazing

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<v Billy Newman>Welcome to The Night Sky Podcast. Astronomy guides, seasonal constellation tracking, planetary observations, and deep sky astrophotography.

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<v Billy Newman>planner of the sky yeah yeah we need to we need to look out ahead try and get some programming in

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<v Billy Newman>some ideas for 2017 sky watching stuff um but yeah it's gonna be really cool i think uh getting

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<v Billy Newman>to try and watch those three things so like the the the conjunction of the moon and venus or excuse

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<v Billy Newman>me yeah the moon and venus mercury and regulus and then the moon and aldebaran tonight i think

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<v Billy Newman>those three things are going to be kind of cool to check out yeah a lot of good stuff to get it'll

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<v Billy Newman>be cool and then even more than that and this is the other thing that we should get into is uh is

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<v Billy Newman>the delta aquariate meteor shower is going to be going on for uh for i think the next few days here

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<v Billy Newman>i think it's really yeah we've got a couple days left i think yeah and then uh i think it'll kind

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<v Billy Newman>of tail off i'm not sure how they said it's all it's hard to tell i don't trust i don't trust the

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<v Billy Newman>predictions that come out i think the predictions are loose predictions a lot of the stuff that i was

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<v Billy Newman>reading said that predictions are really only roughly it's difficult it's really difficult i think that

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<v Billy Newman>um this meteor shower that we have going on right now the delta aquariates one i think that that was

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<v Billy Newman>supposed to have started on the 27th yeah it's yesterday and i think that it says it's supposed to go

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<v Billy Newman>till about the 30th but probably a few days into early august yeah so given that like because you're

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<v Billy Newman>right because um the way that i understand it is that there's a ramp up and a ramp down from the

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<v Billy Newman>time that that meteor shower peaks and so that's why this section of summer is so great to to go out

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<v Billy Newman>also because you get so many shooting stars during that period because we're going to have this uh this

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<v Billy Newman>ramp up to the delta aquariates which i've seen a lot of good meteors out of in the past

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<v Billy Newman>you know during this time of year it's yeah you'll be able to catch a few i think it i think it was

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<v Billy Newman>maybe like 20 an hour sometimes i think that they always try and sell the number like what what's the

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<v Billy Newman>number that get you out of the house to look at it that's what will tell you but i don't know if

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<v Billy Newman>it's really if it's really known or not i've i've gone out on years that were supposed to be great

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<v Billy Newman>and it was a little bit of a dud it just it just actually depends on what random material is floating

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<v Billy Newman>in front of the atmosphere when our planet runs into it yeah it's really difficult to predict

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<v Billy Newman>they say okay so we'll get to that in a second the prediction stuff about about meteor showers is

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<v Billy Newman>silly or it's just complicated yeah i'm not sure i'm not sure what they really notice or what would

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<v Billy Newman>make like it peak or not but the cool thing so like we're talking about is we had the delta

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<v Billy Newman>aquariates which we were out for just a couple nights ago yeah we saw a few yeah we were trying

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<v Billy Newman>to take some some photos some really wide angle photos we use like this 10 millimeter lens uh to try

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<v Billy Newman>and get some of those those uh photos of the milky way that we were talking about from the last

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<v Billy Newman>couple episodes like when we're talking about astrophotography and wide angle astrophotography

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<v Billy Newman>using uh high iso high iso on a digital camera with a really wide angle with a long exposure and

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<v Billy Newman>getting a lot of light captured into that sensor so we can make these photographs of the milky way

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<v Billy Newman>looking really crisp or some of the stars that we see in the in the night just looking really crisp

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<v Billy Newman>and and bright still similar to the way that the eye sees it it's interesting how that is right

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<v Billy Newman>how the eye sees uh so much light in the night sky but you know a camera sensor it doesn't yeah it's

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<v Billy Newman>a lot of work to make it get what you see yeah yeah right and to capture all that light that we're able

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<v Billy Newman>to see when we're able to make out the milky way galaxy you have to leave a shutter open for like

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<v Billy Newman>20 or 30 seconds or so to get that same effect and uh so that's kind of an interesting thing about

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<v Billy Newman>how sensitive our our eyes are as a tool to get to see or to get to look at stuff but it's really

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<v Billy Newman>fun trying to work with the camera and trying to to build some of these photos i really like some of

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<v Billy Newman>the stuff that we did because like we were talking about in the last episode how to spot the galactic

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<v Billy Newman>center right and like where it is at like the the front end of the teapot that's in score or that's

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<v Billy Newman>in uh sagittarius and at the back end of scorpio uh and so that was kind of fun going out and looking

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<v Billy Newman>at as we look to south this time of year yeah like if it gets a little bit late in the night like

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<v Billy Newman>we were looking at you really see scorpio kind of tilting out toward the west quite a bit more than it

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<v Billy Newman>was just a month ago and then you see the milky way just kind of beam straight down due south and

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<v Billy Newman>drop out past the horizon which is really cool i'm glad that we get to we get to see it and we got

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<v Billy Newman>some photos of it which was fun yeah i'm glad we made it out to that spot we went just a little bit

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<v Billy Newman>outside of our apartment part of town which is uh pretty much downtown uh in eugene where we live

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<v Billy Newman>so there's a lot of light pollution here but we yeah we drove a little bit out uh just to some

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<v Billy Newman>country area that's a little ways away and it was great it was way better yeah it always is we

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<v Billy Newman>we should oh you know we'll try and do that as much as we can that's what was great about growing up in

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<v Billy Newman>southern oregon and i was thinking about this now too and what most people probably never had

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<v Billy Newman>was that like it's you know that area in southern oregon where we went to to look out to the southern

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<v Billy Newman>sky there if you think about it there are no other cities there south for almost ever right

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<v Billy Newman>like you think about that section of the earth the geography of where southern oregon is and past

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<v Billy Newman>that there's you know there's murphy which is not but it's really it's just the hills it's just those

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<v Billy Newman>big hills that drop into that redwood curtains out there have you heard of that before the redwood

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<v Billy Newman>curtain i don't know if they have is that i guess where the redwoods sort of basically it's sort of uh

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<v Billy Newman>it's sort of this term for the geology of that area how uh you go down you follow the i-5 corridor

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<v Billy Newman>it goes all the way down to southern oregon and then it just gets into this really intense

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<v Billy Newman>mountainous terrain that's up and down and up and down that we don't really have in the rest of

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<v Billy Newman>like up here we have the willamette valley it's this big wide expansive stuff there's not there's a

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<v Billy Newman>mountain range over to the to the west the coastal range but that's not as big and so that area of

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<v Billy Newman>southern oregon you know by the roe river where all those hills are there and then down into the

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<v Billy Newman>redwoods and into northern california and like into the trinity alps where we were that whole area

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<v Billy Newman>is all mountainous terrain that's built up in that section and that's what kind of blocked off a lot

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<v Billy Newman>of development in northern california over to the redwood coast like to where eureka is and arcada is

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<v Billy Newman>you

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<v Billy Newman>why there's not as much access out there because of this thing called the Redwood Curtain just

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<v Billy Newman>just that there are so many big hills for like a thousand miles out there yeah and you look at

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<v Billy Newman>yeah you look at a map of the U.S. and there's sort of like a clumpy block of mountains over

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<v Billy Newman>there by the Siskiyou Mountain Range like where um where Mount Ashland is on the divide of Oregon

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<v Billy Newman>the Oregon-California divide there there's big hills there that and you know everything else

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<v Billy Newman>to the coastal side is really mountainous that's cool I hadn't I hadn't heard it uh called the

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<v Billy Newman>Redwood Curtain before yeah and so what I was thinking about is that that sky that we're looking

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<v Billy Newman>out to the south good view is a good view because there's no cities there until yeah or something way

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<v Billy Newman>down like a few hundred miles into into California it's really it's a great spot yeah it's pretty cool

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<v Billy Newman>so you just you get a lot of uh or there's just no light pollution on that side of town I think even

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<v Billy Newman>if I lived on the north side of Grants Pass there just would have been tons of light pollution in

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<v Billy Newman>that section I wouldn't have ever had that kind of view of the sky so it was kind of interesting

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<v Billy Newman>thinking about that uh and thinking about how much better or just the benefit that that kind of view

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<v Billy Newman>had of not having that much light pollution had and viewing things in the southern sky it really

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<v Billy Newman>makes all the difference yeah somewhere that's just a little bit darker a little bit darker but

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<v Billy Newman>even still where we were when we went south of Eugene here we look at and you still see the lights from

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<v Billy Newman>the small towns those little satellite towns that are further out from Eugene that are still like

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<v Billy Newman>within the 15 20 mile range and those little areas even put off and the little establishments of the

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<v Billy Newman>communities that live there put off a lot of light pollution they do yeah the horizon is is all glowy

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<v Billy Newman>like that yeah it's lit yeah it was interesting it was just kind of a strange thing to think about

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<v Billy Newman>but we were talking about the delta aquariats and going out for the the photo or taking the photos

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<v Billy Newman>hanging out looking at the constellations and stuff that were out there and while we were out there

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<v Billy Newman>we saw like a handful of meteor shower or a handful of meteors yeah but just shooting stars that's

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<v Billy Newman>pretty cool it was pretty cool and so that's the delta aquariats were ramping up yeah and i was hearing

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<v Billy Newman>that um after the moon has set and before dawn is a a good time to look to because it's that much

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<v Billy Newman>darker without the yeah yeah i think and we're in a great spot right now because the moon well like

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<v Billy Newman>tonight what we're talking about is the moon will rise probably at what like 4 a.m or so because

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<v Billy Newman>it's going to be a cult thing all over on tonight so it's going to be up in the night sky and then

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<v Billy Newman>just in a couple days it'll be a new moon so there'll be no moon in the sky which will be great

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<v Billy Newman>and then here's the great thing so we're talking about the delta aquariate meteor shower and it's

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<v Billy Newman>pretty cool but it's like a limited amount of stuff but it's a good ramp up it'll get you prepped you

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<v Billy Newman>should go out and try it a little bit you'll probably see a couple fun you know meteors that are

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<v Billy Newman>shooting stars that come through uh you might see a couple really good ones too but now there's a thing

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<v Billy Newman>that's interesting is just after that and what we talked about before is the perseid meteor shower

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<v Billy Newman>that's going to be coming through and that peaks that's at its uh its best on uh i think it's august

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<v Billy Newman>11th and 12th i think that's the evening of the 11th and the morning of the 12th that's going to be

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<v Billy Newman>the period that it peaks and i think you you would start making your observations toward the constellation

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<v Billy Newman>of perseus after around 11 p.m i'd really say like after midnight so that it would entirely be

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<v Billy Newman>on the uh on the date of the 12th but but it's the evening of the 11th 12th right and uh yeah so

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<v Billy Newman>after midnight into 1 a.m 2 a.m and then really getting the strongest between 3 4 and 5 a.m

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<v Billy Newman>is going to be uh yeah the perceived meteor shower and that's they're saying this year back to the

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<v Billy Newman>predictions that we were talking about earlier they're saying it's going to peak this year it's

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<v Billy Newman>going to pop this year i was hearing that too yeah it's supposed to be like double the usual expected

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<v Billy Newman>amount which is like 200 it says 200 per hour yeah which i'm suspicious of i'm suspicious of that

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<v Billy Newman>i've never got one a minute i've never seen one a minute and i've tried to i've tried to go out and

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<v Billy Newman>make observations of this for the last 10 years probably yeah i i'm doubtful that it'll be that

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<v Billy Newman>much you might see a few little sprites that's probably what they account for just some some real

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<v Billy Newman>tiny little insignificant sprite that yeah kind of cut cut through but but the big ones or the

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<v Billy Newman>the perceivable ones like hey whoa look that's a shooting star that seems like less than 60 an hour

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<v Billy Newman>i'm sure it is i bet if you're out in a really really nice dark spot you probably are going to

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<v Billy Newman>get to see more of them yeah you probably see more but man there's a lot of cool ones and what we get

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<v Billy Newman>a good chance to see are the fireballs there's a little difference between like um between a

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<v Billy Newman>shooting star and a fireball have you heard have you heard about that tell me tell me about that a

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<v Billy Newman>little bit so like the the so the shooting star comes through it's you know a little little chunk

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<v Billy Newman>of rock in it it uh the the thing that we see the light that we see is is really not the rock or the

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<v Billy Newman>object it's it's the pressure that it puts on the air in front of the rock right and that turns it

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<v Billy Newman>radiates light because it's really hot and it's like a little plasma tube it's sort of like a it's

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<v Billy Newman>like a vacuum behind the shooting star as it comes in out from outer space and into the earth

00:12:00.829 --> 00:12:05.729
<v Billy Newman>atmosphere it kind of pokes a hole into the atmosphere and that pushes a lot of energy into

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<v Billy Newman>it and that kind of uh illuminates the tube that is a vacuum it ionizes the tube it is a vacuum to

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<v Billy Newman>show a lot of light that's what we see in a shooting star and the little piece is like you

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<v Billy Newman>know a small chunk and it just burns up now a fireball is bigger than that that's the one that

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<v Billy Newman>we see that uh that looks like it's a it's a real thing that's kind of crumbling up in the sky

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<v Billy Newman>and when i see it kind of like pull into a part or two and disappear i've only seen a couple of

00:12:31.849 --> 00:12:36.829
<v Billy Newman>those in my life but those are like the bigger the bigger meteor showers or the bigger you know

00:12:36.829 --> 00:12:41.029
<v Billy Newman>shooting stars that we would see in the evening those really significant ones that look that look

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<v Billy Newman>stronger and don't look just like a little a little yeah but yeah those pieces are the ones that

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<v Billy Newman>they're called fireballs that's cool how and do we see mostly um not fireballs mostly shooting stars

00:12:55.609 --> 00:13:00.489
<v Billy Newman>yeah you're mostly going to see shooting stars in fact it would be it's kind of rare almost to see

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<v Billy Newman>a fireball

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<v Billy Newman>Reflection, I think I'm on the waterfront over by OMSI on the east side of Portland,

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<v Billy Newman>and the photo is looking back in October 2007.

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<v Billy Newman>It's looking back toward the skyline of all the buildings in Portland on the west side downtown,

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<v Billy Newman>and there's this really cool reflection of all the light from all the buildings that's in the Willamette River

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<v Billy Newman>that kind of goes across.

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<v Billy Newman>There's a lot of cool streaks of light, and there's like red and blue and green and purple

00:13:53.720 --> 00:13:58.460
<v Billy Newman>kind of all streaked across the light in the water on the Willamette River.

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<v Billy Newman>And then above that, on the horizon line, rises up from that all these kind of most Portland-sized skyscrapers.

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<v Billy Newman>So it's cool. I'm glad that I got that photograph.

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<v Billy Newman>There's another photo in here of an old comet that I photographed with my roommate Micah way back,

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<v Billy Newman>and that was in fall of 2007 also.

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<v Billy Newman>But I remember this comet cruised in. I think it was over by the star Capella.

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<v Billy Newman>And so it really only showed up as a pretty dim, fuzzy dot in the sky.

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<v Billy Newman>But I remember we spent a lot of time out there in a pretty cold evening on top of, well, I think it was a small hill

00:14:33.500 --> 00:14:34.740
<v Billy Newman>kind of north of Corvallis.

00:14:35.400 --> 00:14:38.020
<v Billy Newman>But it's a cool photo. You can really make out that it is a comet.

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<v Billy Newman>There's no tail, unfortunately.

00:14:39.320 --> 00:14:42.940
<v Billy Newman>I think it was one of those comets that's kind of focused on going, like, straight in toward us

00:14:42.940 --> 00:14:46.100
<v Billy Newman>and then not kind of beside us and not at a glancing angle.

00:14:46.100 --> 00:14:52.240
<v Billy Newman>So the tail that you see is facing away from the sun, and I think in this image that would be directly away from the earth

00:14:52.240 --> 00:14:55.280
<v Billy Newman>or at opposition to us so you don't see a tail from the photograph.

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<v Billy Newman>Let's see what other photos I've got in here.

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<v Billy Newman>I think there's this cool one.

00:15:00.530 --> 00:15:07.210
<v Billy Newman>There's a few that I took at, like, a poker night way back in, like, 2007 that are pretty fun to see, again,

00:15:07.210 --> 00:15:08.970
<v Billy Newman>or just, like, some cool old memories.

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<v Billy Newman>But, again, a lot of stuff that was long exposure.

00:15:11.290 --> 00:15:19.470
<v Billy Newman>I'm looking at, like, a few things that were from 2008 of, like, downtown scenes of places that were in, like, the wintertime.

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<v Billy Newman>I'm seeing a lot of stuff of, what is that called?

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<v Billy Newman>Like, where you get that, where you, like, ratchet down the aperture to, like, F-16, let's say.

00:15:29.890 --> 00:15:35.550
<v Billy Newman>And then when it's wide open and you take a photograph of, let's say, like, a pinpoint of light,

00:15:35.670 --> 00:15:37.550
<v Billy Newman>it'll just sort of look like an orb of light.

00:15:37.670 --> 00:15:40.970
<v Billy Newman>It'll kind of glow out and it'll sort of, like, spread and look like a big orb of light.

00:15:40.990 --> 00:15:45.910
<v Billy Newman>But if you drop, if you ratchet down to, like, F-16, it'll close that aperture down.

00:15:46.290 --> 00:15:48.750
<v Billy Newman>And depending on, like, how many, I think, what is it?

00:15:49.790 --> 00:15:51.330
<v Billy Newman>It doesn't make a perfect circle.

00:15:51.330 --> 00:15:54.710
<v Billy Newman>So there's these artifacts of where the iris sort of closes down.

00:15:55.690 --> 00:15:58.810
<v Billy Newman>And there's, like, a little flare that comes off of that or a little line.

00:15:58.810 --> 00:16:03.670
<v Billy Newman>And so you get these kind of star-like images that look like the light.

00:16:03.910 --> 00:16:05.170
<v Billy Newman>It's like a star filter or something.

00:16:05.710 --> 00:16:11.030
<v Billy Newman>So it's kind of a cool way to look at a light or, you know, to look at lights and a long exposure of a bigger scene.

00:16:12.030 --> 00:16:12.810
<v Billy Newman>I think it's fun.

00:16:13.650 --> 00:16:15.410
<v Billy Newman>Fun to go back and see all these old photographs.

00:16:15.510 --> 00:16:17.470
<v Billy Newman>And I think I've had quite a few of them go out.

00:16:17.790 --> 00:16:19.790
<v Billy Newman>There's a lot of good ones that are coming up soon, though.

00:16:19.890 --> 00:16:24.850
<v Billy Newman>So what I try to do is go back through, like, the college years of stuff and then jump into, I think, like,

00:16:24.850 --> 00:16:30.310
<v Billy Newman>straight into the better stuff that I was doing with, like, the photographic trips.

00:16:30.410 --> 00:16:36.970
<v Billy Newman>That's when I was really trying to, like, get photography done or, like, learn about photography and get interesting images kind of created.

00:16:36.990 --> 00:16:38.910
<v Billy Newman>So there's a lot of stuff in there that I'm proud of.

00:16:38.970 --> 00:16:44.270
<v Billy Newman>There's a couple from Crater Lake, a trip that I did in 2012 that are going to be coming out soon.

00:16:44.270 --> 00:16:46.770
<v Billy Newman>And I think at the end of this week that I'm really excited to see.

00:16:46.890 --> 00:16:54.730
<v Billy Newman>But this really cool panorama that I've now re-edited to really illustrate the entire lake of Crater Lake out there.

00:16:54.830 --> 00:16:56.010
<v Billy Newman>And it was this really beautiful evening.

00:16:56.150 --> 00:16:57.770
<v Billy Newman>A really cool sunset was going on.

00:16:57.990 --> 00:17:00.350
<v Billy Newman>And I was really fortunate to be out there with a tripod.

00:17:00.550 --> 00:17:08.830
<v Billy Newman>And I spent the whole day there at Crater Lake kind of waiting for the right light and then, like, hiking out and finding a good spot up in the snow, which was cool.

00:17:08.830 --> 00:17:15.170
<v Billy Newman>I think it was June, but, yeah, there's still a lot of the rim trail that was still closed because of how much snow there was.

00:17:15.890 --> 00:17:26.370
<v Billy Newman>And so I took some time, spent the evening up there until it was dark, and then drove back down and then out to some campground way out of town there or way out of the national park.

00:17:27.050 --> 00:17:32.410
<v Billy Newman>And I got a handful of really cool panorama photos that I've just now gone through and re-edited.

00:17:32.550 --> 00:17:34.770
<v Billy Newman>But they had been my favorites for a long time.

00:17:34.770 --> 00:17:44.170
<v Billy Newman>And I think that these re-edits of these old photographs from Crater Lake are probably going to jump up on top of my list now of some of my favorite pieces in my portfolio, which is cool to see.

00:17:44.270 --> 00:17:47.970
<v Billy Newman>I'm glad to see it growing a little bit, even still with old images.

00:17:48.290 --> 00:17:50.310
<v Billy Newman>So it's nice to see a few things getting better.

00:17:50.490 --> 00:17:59.090
<v Billy Newman>But there's a handful of abstracts, a cool set of photos from this old industrial section of Southern Oregon or of Grants Pass that I was in.

00:17:59.250 --> 00:18:02.950
<v Billy Newman>And just old mills, old woodworking mills that have old smokestacks and stuff.

00:18:02.950 --> 00:18:09.650
<v Billy Newman>And at night, when they're blowing out steam or smoke, there's enough security lights in the area that that light really illuminates.

00:18:09.750 --> 00:18:15.470
<v Billy Newman>And so you can get these really cool kind of sweeping textures over these sort of strange sort of industrial-looking scenes.

00:18:16.090 --> 00:18:21.750
<v Billy Newman>It's this nice, warm, bright orange glow that's kind of over this industrial area.

00:18:21.750 --> 00:18:22.570
<v Billy Newman>So it's kind of fun.

00:18:22.710 --> 00:18:28.070
<v Billy Newman>I remember they were just kind of early conceptual images that I was trying to make, or just early images for fun.

00:18:28.070 --> 00:18:34.330
<v Billy Newman>I remember a lot of them were just kind of evenings of frustration at home, and I just kind of get fed up with whatever stuff I was doing.

00:18:34.470 --> 00:18:41.770
<v Billy Newman>And I think, well, I'm going to go grab my camera and try and go take some pictures, just I guess because I like it, because it's more interesting.

00:18:42.910 --> 00:18:50.510
<v Billy Newman>So, hey, the other thing that I was going to talk about, and this is the only other topic that I have for this podcast this evening, is the nightsky.io project.

00:18:50.510 --> 00:18:52.670
<v Billy Newman>I want you guys to check that out if you ever get a chance.

00:18:52.670 --> 00:18:53.510
<v Billy Newman>I'll put a link on it.

00:18:53.910 --> 00:18:58.310
<v Billy Newman>And that's what I need to get better at with my site is just more links out to all my projects and stuff.

00:18:58.450 --> 00:19:03.150
<v Billy Newman>But my blogs are always just the photo only, no links, no other options or anything.

00:19:03.150 --> 00:19:14.330
<v Billy Newman>So I think what I'm going to try and do is, well, I'm going to try and get this nightsky project launched in the next couple days, and it's going to be a Kickstarter, which I'm excited about.

00:19:14.430 --> 00:19:16.130
<v Billy Newman>It's going to be the first Kickstarter campaign that I'm running.

00:19:16.290 --> 00:19:25.730
<v Billy Newman>I don't know, you know, I don't know what the outcome of it will be or how successful it will be, but in the least, it will be a good learning experience for a lot of other projects that I want to do.

00:19:25.730 --> 00:19:33.510
<v Billy Newman>That really shows on the calendar itself, it kind of identifies all the celestial dates of interest that are going to happen throughout the year.

00:19:34.483 --> 00:19:55.224
<v Billy Newman>Produced and hosted by Billy Newman. Stargazing guides, observation logs, and support the show at wnp-pay.web.app.